Lessons in Intelligence with Sir David Omand GCB
The World of Intelligence
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Strategic Notice: How to Deal With a Mystery Situation
In the 1990 Gulf War, Saddam has his tanks poised on the border with Kuwait. The determinant is probably what Saddam himself thinks the United States will do if he does cross the border. So that's rationally how you go about dealing with those sort of complexities. But then something creeps up behind you and hits you on the back of the head which is why I put the final S in C's - strategic notice. If you spotted early enough, you can position yourself to look out for the first signs of this happening.
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