2min chapter

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Will MacAskill - Longtermism, Altruism, History, & Technology

Dwarkesh Podcast

CHAPTER

Is There More Contingency?

Historically, prior to the industrial revolution, i think it's still contingency only on the order of, you know, centuries to thousands of years. And then in the like, post industrial revolution world, i think there's much less contingency. It's much harder to see technologies that wouldn't have happened within decades if they hadn't been developed when they were. If you've just got a whole bunch of cultures, and they're all in a random walk, and one hits upon like, hey, we're gong to do industry,. then that economy just takes over the world. That's why economic growth is so much more contingent than model proges.

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