GM34: When Geopolitics meets Global Macro ft. Jacob Shapiro & Roger Hirst
Top Traders Unplugged
China Reopening
China is a different beast today than China of five years ago. And I don't think they're going back to that. They want to move towards a sustainable internal consumption model. Some countries are going to benefit from China reopening. The United States, probably not.
Today we are joined by Jacob Shapiro and Roger Hirst. Jacob is the Geopolitics Editor at financial media company Lykeion, co-author of a monthly research publication focused on the converging worlds of Geopolitics and Macro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, and Founder and Chief Strategist of the business and political risk consulting firm Perch Perspectives. Roger is the Macro Editor at financial media company Lykeion and the Managing Editor of Real Vision Creative Studios. Together they provide a powerhouse of insights into the machinations of geopolitics and macroeconomics. Key in this conversation are Jacob’s and Roger’s insights into China and whether China has the capacity to influence global growth going forward. In our conversation we explore the possibility and probability of deglobalization and what that might mean. In addition Roger and Jacob turn the spotlight on Latin America and the potential it holds given the current geopolitical and macroeconomic constraints the world is facing. Join us in this deep dive into what lies behind and beneath these pressing issues.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:42 - Introduction to Shapiro & Hirst
09:22 - Where lies the uncertainty?
11:01 - The ultimate impact on markets
15:32 - Reflecting on Peter Zeihan's work
25:17 - Can we rely on Chinese data?
34:34 - The problems with Chinese real-estate
36:56 - Xi Jinpings geopolitical ambitions
40:35 - Can China still influence global growth?
46:51 - The relationship between Russia and China
48:50 - Are we heading towards deglobalization?
54:19 - A disruption in global commodities
01:04:49 - A bad outlook for equities?
01:07:57 - Are we forgetting Latin America?
01:10:08 - A shift in equities?
01:12:18 - Thanks for listening
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