4min chapter

The Value Perspective cover image

The Value Perspective with Dan Rasmussen 2.0

The Value Perspective

CHAPTER

The Effect of Recent Memory on Probability Judgments

David Frum: Memory shapes how people make probability judgments. He says investors tend to be anchored towards the last three years. Recent memory can be disrupted by big salient events or these recent fads, he says. But if you have a different set of circumstances that change in the trailing three years, then you're going to see a very different pattern of behavior.

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