Introduction

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/most-technologies-arent-races

[Disclaimer: I’m not an AI policy person, the people who are have thought about these scenarios in more depth, and if they disagree with this I’ll link to their rebuttals]

Some people argue against delaying AI because it might make China (or someone else) “win” the AI “race”.

But suppose AI is “only” a normal transformative technology, no more important than electricity, automobiles, or computers.

Who “won” the electricity “race”? Maybe Thomas Edison, but that didn’t cause Edison’s descendants to rule the world as emperors, or make Menlo Park a second Rome. It didn’t even especially advantage America. Edison personally got rich, the overall balance of power didn’t change, and today all developed countries have electricity.