Is It Possible to Predict the Double Expirativity?

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Even AI experts who are most familiar with exponential curves are still poor at predicting progress, even know they have that cognitive bias. Even for the experts, it's getting increasingly hard because progress is accelerating. And if I wasn't checking Twitter a couple times a day, we were missing important developments. This is what it feels like to live in the double exponential.

You may have heard about the arrival of GPT-4, OpenAI’s latest large language model (LLM) release. GPT-4 surpasses its predecessor in terms of reliability, creativity, and ability to process intricate instructions. It can handle more nuanced prompts compared to previous releases, and is multimodal, meaning it was trained on both images and text. We don’t yet understand its capabilities - yet it has already been deployed to the public.

At Center for Humane Technology, we want to close the gap between what the world hears publicly about AI from splashy CEO presentations and what the people who are closest to the risks and harms inside AI labs are telling us. We translated their concerns into a cohesive story and presented the resulting slides to heads of institutions and major media organizations in New York, Washington DC, and San Francisco. The talk you're about to hear is the culmination of that work, which is ongoing.

AI may help us achieve major advances like curing cancer or addressing climate change. But the point we're making is: if our dystopia is bad enough, it won't matter how good the utopia we want to create. We only get one shot, and we need to move at the speed of getting it right.

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Your Undivided Attention is produced by the Center for Humane Technology. Follow us on Twitter: @HumaneTech_