Economic Incentives and Fertility Rates

Dr. Peter Berezin is the Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research at BCA Research, the largest Canadian investment research firm. He’s known for his macroeconomics research reports and his frequent appearances on Bloomberg and CNBC.

Notably, Peter is one of the only macroeconomists in the world who’s forecasting AI doom! He recently published a research report estimating a “ more than 50/50 chance AI will wipe out all of humanity by the middle of the century”.

00:00 Introducing Peter Berezin

01:59 Peter’s Economic Predictions and Track Record

05:50 Investment Strategies and Beating the Market

17:47 The Future of Human Employment

26:40 Existential Risks and the Doomsday Argument

34:13 What’s Your P(Doom)™

39:18 Probability of non-AI Doom

44:19 Solving Population Decline

50:53 Constraining AI Development

53:40 The Multiverse and Its Implications

01:01:11 Are Other Economists Crazy?

01:09:19 Mathematical Universe and Multiverse Theories

01:19:43 Epistemic vs. Physical Probability

01:33:19 Reality Fluid

01:39:11 AI and Moral Realism

01:54:18 The Simulation Hypothesis and God

02:10:06 Liron’s Post-Show

Show Notes

Peter’s Twitter: https://x.com/PeterBerezinBCA

Peter’s old blog — https://stockcoach.blogspot.com

Peter’s 2021 BCA Research Report: “Life, Death and Finance in the Cosmic Multiverse” — https://www.bcaresearch.com/public/content/GIS_SR_2021_12_21.pdf

M.C. Escher’s “Circle Limit IV” — https://www.escherinhetpaleis.nl/escher-today/circle-limit-iv-heaven-and-hell/

Zvi Mowshowitz’s Blog (Liron’s recommendation for best AI news & analysis) — https://thezvi.substack.com

My Doom Debates episode about why nuclear proliferation is bad — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueB9iRQsvQ8

Robin Hanson’s “Mangled Worlds” paper — https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/mangledworlds.html

Uncontrollable by Darren McKee (Liron’s recommended AI x-risk book) — https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CNNYKVH1

Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligence

PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info

Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at https://doomdebates.com and to https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates