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Michael Pettis: China's Economic Growth Model Is Dying

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

The Three Red Lines of the Chinese Real Estate Market

Beijing controls so much of the lending, oh, lend this much to steel, this much to real estate. Once they decided that and said, you can no longer borrow, that sort of caused the whole thing to collapse. As a share of GDP, Chinese residential real estate is almost certainly the highest in the world. But even if they're able to stabilize it, and I'm not sure they can, that means stabilizing it at prices which would still be thehighest in the world relative to GDP.

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