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6min chapter
#6 — MARTIN GURRI (ex-CIA, Mercatus Center)
THE SPLINTER
Forecasting and Prediction: The Art of Speculation
Exploring the research by Philip Tetlock on accurate short-term predictions, this chapter debates the development of forecasting skills over reliance on classified information. Emphasizing the unpredictability of complex systems like human behavior, it challenges the notion of precise future predictions while advocating for creating analytical frameworks.
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