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Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality
Dwarkesh Podcast
The Scaling Laws of Doom
I don't think that gpt3 to 3.5 to 4 was all that smooth I'm sure if you are in there looking at the loss at the losses decline There is some level on which it's smooth if you if you zoom in close enough But from us from perspective of us on the outside world gpt4 was just was just like Suddenly acquiring this new batch of qualitative capabilities compared to gpt3.5 And it so like and somewhere in there is a smoothly declining predictable loss in on text prediction, but that loss on text prediction jump corresponds to qualitative jumps and ability and I am not familiar with anybody who predicted those in advance of the observation So in your view when doom
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