Some radings agencies did build into their forecasts the possibility that default rates on housing would reach levels of the great depression. The fact is that that bothers me the most. Tan, this, that exposure to these tale opants was presentible in what sense? Let's not take the general deat level in economy. Got theat causes an exposure to te levans. Was there lost an most money waswhere was the margino?
Nassim Taleb talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the financial crisis, how we misunderstand rare events, the fragility of the banking system, the moral hazard of government bailouts, the unprecedented nature of really, really bad events, the contribution of human psychology to misinterpreting probability and the dangers of hubris. The conversation closes with a discussion of religion and probability.