Inflation is a total nightmare for incumbent governments. Research shows that if an election is held a couple of years after inflation has peaked, then the incumbent party tends to lose three quarters of the time. So in other words, the odds are firmly stacked against Rishi Sunak simply because of the politics of inflation. But it's not impossible for him to win an election. It's very hard, which raises the question of how can he navigate the cost of living.

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