Inflation is a total nightmare for incumbent governments. Research shows that if an election is held a couple of years after inflation has peaked, then the incumbent party tends to lose three quarters of the time. So in other words, the odds are firmly stacked against Rishi Sunak simply because of the politics of inflation. But it's not impossible for him to win an election. It's very hard, which raises the question of how can he navigate the cost of living.
Is the UK’s 2024 general election a foregone conclusion, with the Labour Party some 20 points ahead in the opinion polls? Can Rishi Sunak turn around the economy in time? Is there enough difference between the two main parties on the issues that voters care most about – the cost of living crisis, the NHS and immigration? As both parties tilt more to the right to win votes, is now a bad time for progressives in Britain? Matthew Goodwin, political scientist and author of new book, Values, Voice and Virtue: The New British Politics, joins journalist and former speech writer for Tony Blair, Philip Collins, to discuss the political landscape in the UK and what each party needs to do to secure victory in just over a year’s time. Our host for this discussion is journalist, academic and former BBC News broadcaster Philippa Thomas.
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