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Existential Risks & the Future of Humanity | Toby Ord

Hidden Forces

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Estimating Anthropogenic Risks

This chapter discusses the difficulty in objectively estimating anthropogenic risks and the uncertainties surrounding these risks. Despite the uncertainty, they conclude that anthropogenic risks are much more likely than extinction caused by natural risks. They use the example of the chance of an existential catastrophe due to nuclear war, where there is a factor of 10 difference in estimates among experts.

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