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Is There a Risk of a Recession?
The good news is that the profit downturn hitting America may already be priced in thanks to how much analysts have dialed back profit forecasts. The bad news is there's a major caveat. If the economy lapses into recession in the second half stocks probably have further to fall. But again our view is it's likely that we're going to have a recession but equally as likely that it's going to be mild and brief.