Doug O’Loughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and SemiAnalysis returns to the podcast in to dive into all things AI, Power, and Corporate Governance. On the AI side, they discuss where we are in the cycle, if AI is a bubble, and what will drive the next leg of growth. On the corporate governance side, they discuss using signals like off-cycle PSU grants to reflexive incentive structures to find investments, as well as diving into some topical examples. (PS- Doug’s last appearance was podcast #166 on AppLovin $APP, which doubles as the best performing pitch in YAVP history).
Links
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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Doug’s background
[00:02:36] AI sector partying vs. value sadness
[00:04:06] AI’s capital cycle and bubble setup
[00:07:04] Oracle’s shift to debt-fueled capex
[00:09:45] Why capital intensity changes multiples
[00:11:48] TPU vs. Nvidia: a real challenger
[00:13:07] Google’s evolving TPU go-to-market
[00:16:02] AI scaling walls and RL progress
[00:18:24] Reinforcement learning and Dota AI
[00:20:15] Token economics and GPU monetization
[00:22:02] OpenAI, profitability, and token resale
[00:24:00] AI’s deflationary impact and services
[00:26:51] Revisiting the power bottleneck thesis
[00:27:44] Power grid constraints and worker shortages
[00:31:33] Industrials benefiting from AI buildout
[00:32:22] Generalist vs. specialist investor gaps
[00:33:47] Specialist traps in relative valuation
[00:36:36] Doug’s obsession with board behavior
[00:38:19] Do boards game investors with PSUs?
[00:41:12] Reflexive incentives at Broadcom example
[00:42:17] Mimification and pump incentives at Opendoor
[00:44:46] Performance incentives vs. job requirements
[00:46:19] Biotech boards failing shareholder alignment
[00:46:42] PSU timing around Target Hospitality’s drop
[00:52:09] ICE contracts and bed shortage opportunity
[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boom
Links:
Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com
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