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6min chapter
TIP447: How to Build a Human Bias Defense System w/ Gary Mishuris
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Base Rate Neglect
Base rate neglect refers to ignoring the experience of others in similar situations and just making an assumption base on what we think we can do. Over the long term, us equities return inflation, plus six to seven, depending on the time period. So if you are investing thaie, it's pretty easy to start believing your own b s and start saying, well, g no, i can crush to i can do 20, 25 % per year. But like really lat's like zoomout. And i think the best thing you can do is zoom out and say, whatever i think about my own capabilities, let me put a heavy weight on why i'm so much better than
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