Highlights: #200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks
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Diverging Perspectives on Extinction and Catastrophic Risks
This chapter explores the contrasting views on human extinction risks as assessed by super forecasters and experts, revealing a notable disparity in their estimates. Statistics indicate that super forecasters predict a 1% chance of extinction by 2100, while experts suggest a 6% likelihood, alongside differing predictions for catastrophic events.
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