The Limits of Security Guarantees

Rising political extremes, shifting alliances, and competing visions of global order collide as leaders improvise their way through economic anxiety and geopolitical recalibration. Matt Gertken hops into the fray to help the cousins probe the uncomfortable overlap between left-wing populism and right-wing nationalism, the strategic ambiguity surrounding Taiwan, and the high-stakes bargaining shaping the future of Ukraine. What happens when power politics, domestic fragility, and global insecurity all peak at the same time?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Setup

(00:40) - Trump and Momani's Unlikely Friendship

(02:17) - Analyzing Trump's Political Moves

(13:05) - Japan-China Tensions Escalate

(17:54) - Geopolitical Implications for Taiwan

(30:20) - Russia-Ukraine Peace Plan Discussion

(37:19) - Europe's Commitment to Ukraine

(38:34) - Ukraine's Strategic Calculations

(39:21) - Ukrainian Public Sentiment

(40:43) - Debating Russia's Military Competence

(43:10) - The 28-Point Plan and Zelensky's Political Future

(43:34) - Economic Interests and Rebuilding Ukraine

(44:38) - Security Guarantees and Diplomatic Challenges

(56:50) - Trump's Role and Strategic Ambitions

(01:01:39) - Conspiracy Theories and Speculations

(01:02:40) - Debating China's Role in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

(01:03:50) - Speculating on Ukraine's Future and European Dynamics

(01:05:36) - Potential Outcomes of a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal

(01:11:16) - Historical Analogies and Russia's Political Future

(01:21:06) - Geopolitical Shifts and the Role of China

(01:26:49) - Thanksgiving Anecdotes and Closing Remarks

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro