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The Republican Party's Predictions for the Midterms
In 2022, 68% of those who voted in 2020 turned out to vote in the 2022 midterms. Democratic 2018 voters were slightly more likely than Republican 2018 voters to defect in 2022. So what exactly does that mean for Republicans? Well, again, it means that they're going to have to count on lower voter turnout for Democrats in order to win the 2024 election if Donald Trump is the candidate. The 2022 election is a sort of good forecast you would presume for what's going to happen in 2024.