GM52: The Re-Emergence of the Bond Vigilantes ft. Ed Yardeni
Top Traders Unplugged
Understanding the Current Cycle of the Economy
Exploring the impact of the current economic cycle on different sectors, including housing, manufacturing, and commercial real estate, while addressing the question of consumer behavior and the potential for a recession.
Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini
07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?
11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?
14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?
19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?
25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis
29:08 - Will AI save us?
32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth
36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?
41:40 - The baby boom generation - inflationary or deflationary?
44:06 - China and Japan being deflationary?
45:23 - Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?
47:50 - The outlook for equities
52:14 - The U.S vs the rest
53:32 - Advice for new investors
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
