Interpreting Margin Signals

It was a night of blowout victories in elections for Democrats and Democratic causes across the country, significantly surpassing the party’s most optimistic expectations. In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:

* What, if anything, do the margins, and the nature of the sweep, tell us about the politics today;

* How compatible are these results with a Democratic Senate victory in 2026?

* Why “Democrats should moderate” and “Democrats need to fight harder” takesters both had good nights.

Then, for paid subscribers, will frontline Democrats really continue to be afraid of fighting Trump after tonight’s results? Didn’t the revived resistance widen the party’s margins? Shouldn’t this help Democrats across the board? And if so, why do news reports suggest Senate Democrats might yield in the government-shutdown fight, even though they appear to be winning it?

Further reading:

* Matt writes there’s more to politics than what happens in the four-corners of a campaign.

* Brian on why the Democrats’ biggest liability has been the scourge of wimpiness.

* Brian’s July piece asking what Democrats intend to do if they win the midterms?