3min chapter

Forward Guidance cover image

The Soft Landing “Blue Pill” Is Overpriced | Andy Constan

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

Is Your Trade of Long a Certain June Sofer 2023 in Short the December 2024?

In most environments when you have an in a positively sloped yield curve It pays you positive carry to be long long-term bonds and short short-term bonds or financing overnight You're on repo your short-term bond. That doesn't exist right now so there's a fairly big hurdle for investors to buy bonds now. Is your trade of long a certain june 2023 in short the december 2024? I think is that a Positive carry or a negative carry position and to what degree does that uh depend on the curve? Well, it's a comp that's a complicated question.

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