Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
80k After Hours
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Is There Going to Be a Strategic Nuclear Strike on London?
A nuno sempere and his forecasting group did somewhere to try to estimate the likelihood of a strike onn london, a place close to my heart. I think there's probably a pretty good chance, if we just lived in this world, for 500 years with no major anges that there might be an attack on london as a background rate. So even without what was going on in ukrane, there's a disturbing background risk of attacks on major cities. If you start from there and think, it swells clearly higher. It' a non trivial chance when there's a conflict like this.
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