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Ep143 - Leonard Mlodinow | The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

Talks at Google

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The Law of Small Numbers

The law of large numbers says that if there is an underlying probability or potential for something, then in a large number of observ ons, it will be reflected accurately. But we don't really get observe ceos for forty million years and sports teams playing forty million games. The chances are about one in ten that you'll have five, either five good years or five bad years in a row - even though your underlying ability is 60 per cent.

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