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How to Spot Statistical Garbage

The Political Orphanage

00:00

The Effects of Red Wine Taxes on Life Expectancy

There is a sort of clever shortcut people use. You look for what they call a natural experiment. So maybe, uh, let's say France doubled its tax on red wine, but left the white wine tax unaffected. And suddenly we saw, you know, French life expectancy dropped. It's almost got to be causal, right? I mean, the tax can't kill people. Well, actually can, I suppose, but it's not very likely.

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