There is some more specific data that we can look at in terms of trying to assess what would happen if Trump actually ran as a third party candidate. There's a big question about whether or not he would be able to get on the ballot, which is Alabama, Arkansas, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. I think the most the clearest states that would not allow him on the ballot are South Dakota and Texas according to this article.
Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll, only 9 percent of Americans say it will do more good than harm to society — and consider what to make of former president Donald Trump’s gains on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early Republican presidential primary polling.