Food and Energy Prices Will Fade, or Persist, or Both?

High food and energy prices do increase of recession by herting consumers spending, denting business confidence. Federal reserve may regard them as further evidence of the need for more aggressive moletary tightening. This is a peculiarly difficult time to make a recession prediction. Unprecedented fiscal drag has been countered by unprecedented pent up demand in an economy with unprecedented supply constraints. Under either senario, inflation is likely to be lower a year from than it is now. Investers would probably be wise not to attempt to bet on an increase in or even a continuation of to day's very high inflation.