Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:59 - Industry performance update
06:30 - The outlook for volatility supply
09:01 - Braking the volatility cascade
11:47 - Is the Yen in trouble?
13:51 - Is bread becoming unreliable?
19:57 - When does it all end?
24:38 - What should you monitor as an investor?
27:46 - When will we begin to see increased risk?
33:09 - What will drive the increasing volatility?
35:10 - The election from a volatility perspective
42:46 - Volatility from a market pricing perspective
45:36 - How will a win for Trump impact the economy?
47:56 - Looking outside of the U.S.
53:06 - Similar volatility supply dynamics in Europe?
54:52 - Good times ahead for gold?
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