Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Realities

Tuesday 17th June 2025

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Markets seem optimistic that a resolution between Israel and Iran will be found. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s a general feeling that Iran has its back against the wall and is trying to communicate that they want to d e-escalate the situation. Despite today’s market reaction, there doesn’t seem any evidence of a slowdown in the hostilities. Meanwhile, a Bank of America note overnight suggests central banks have been pulling out of the US dollar since March. Rodrigo also talks through the latest activity data from China, looks ahead to US retail sales today and prepares us for a week that could see a lot of movement in the US Big Beautiful Bill.

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