Ben Hunt, the author of Epsilon Theory (https://www.epsilontheory.com/) and co-founder of Second Foundation Partners, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss narratives and how they shape everything from financial markets to politics.
✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨
Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank.
Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main
A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond’s YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more
00:00 Introduction to Ben Hunt
01:00 Narrative of narrative
03:08 Narratives behind markets
07:00 Wall Street is a story construction machine
09:08 Bitcoin "number go up" story, narrative evolution
20:00 Post-election market narratives
22:42 Shift from "structural" to "WTF" animal spirits
25:00 Managing market exits and exposure
30:17 How quickly narratives change
36:48 Discussion of "fiat news" concept
44:18 Evolution of semantic layer in markets
47:24 Closing thoughts on understanding storytelling systems
