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Chutes and Ladders

MRKT Matrix

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Is This a Good Sign?

In our world right now, worse is better. Jerome Paul testified in front of Congress earlier this week and said things like the totality of the data is going to determine what they do at the next meeting. The market subsequently baked in a 50 basis point hike. I think the probability of that according to the market now is about 65 to 70%. But here's the interesting part. We need a lot of different data points over the next week, week and a half. Some of the inflation numbers out next week will be equally important.

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