Is COVID 'The Big One'?: Context on Pandemic Severity

On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck unpacks how Donald Trump’s Department of Justice has become a political weapon, from targeting perceived enemies like James Comey to sweeping bribery cases under the rug, all while eroding public trust in law enforcement. He explores how Trump’s strategy of framing his own criminal charges as political has worn down the public and set fire to the credibility of the legal system. Chuck also looks at the Democratic Party’s internal strife over whether to embrace figures like Zohran Mamdani, the rising prospects of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and even murmurs of Lisa Murkowski eyeing a gubernatorial run. And beyond politics, he flags troubling signals in the economy—from surging Hamburger Helper sales to a slump in cardboard demand—that suggest things may not be as strong as the stock market makes them appear.

Then, Dr. Michael Osterholm, one of the nation’s foremost infectious disease experts, joins Chuck to confront the unsettling reality that Covid-19 was not “the big one.” From SARS and MERS as early warnings to the looming possibility of coronaviruses that are far more deadly than Covid, Osterholm argues that pandemics are inevitable—and the U.S. is dangerously unprepared. He discusses the political failures that prevented a serious after-action review, the collapse of government vaccine infrastructure, and why misinformation and anti-vaccine sentiment have left public health more vulnerable than ever.

The conversation also looks forward: how mRNA technology could still be a game-changer, why developing respirators and updating building codes matter, and the urgent need for leadership with real bio-threat experience. Osterholm warns that everything from resurging childhood diseases to the rise of avian flu and the risk of bioterrorism are on the horizon, and he offers a sobering reminder—science is not fixed truth, it’s the pursuit of truth. This episode is a wake-up call about what it will take to be ready for the next pandemic, which could be far worse than Covid-19.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews an incredible weekend of sports. 

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Timeline:

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00:00 Introduction

04:00 Trump’s DOJ targeting his perceived enemies

05:15 Trump convinced his base that all his criminal charges were political

06:45 Poor coordination by law enforcement allowed Trump to evade charges

07:45 Trump fired attorney who wouldn’t bring charges against enemies

08:15 DOJ wants to charge James Comey with lying to congress

10:00 Trump has telegraphed this prosecution

13:15 Trump accused Biden DOJ of politicization, now his DOJ is overtly political

14:00 Trump’s DOJ swept Homan bribery under the rug

15:00 Public trust in law enforcement is being destroyed

16:30 Trump is wearing out the public

17:30 Comey did his share of damage to the FBI’s credibility

18:30 We need a better system for staffing top law enforcement job

19:45 Christopher Wray serving under Biden was good thing

20:45 Trump is taking a blowtorch to the credibility of the legal system

21:30 Mainstream Democrats are refusing to endorse Zohran Mamdani

23:00 Kamala Harris gives tepid endorsement of Mamdani 

25:15 Party either wants the Dem socialists in the coalition or they don’t

26:30 Fence sitting on Mamdani makes everybody mad

28:00 Leadership can’t have it both ways

30:15 Democratic handwringing over Mamdani doesn’t inspire confidence

30:45 AOC may run for senate or the presidency

31:45 AOC could win Chuck Schumer’s seat

33:15 Don’t expect Chuck Schumer will run again

34:15 Lisa Murkowski won’t rule out gubernatorial run in 2026

36:45 Senators looking for options to get out of D.C.

38:00 Sales of Hamburger Helper way up, warning sign for economy

40:15 Cardboard box demand slumping, another warning sign

41:15 Economy looks better than it is due to AI boost to stock market

44:15 Dr. Michael Osterholm joins the Chuck ToddCast 

45:30 Are American leaders ready for the next pandemic? 

46:45 Covid wasn't "the big one" pandemic 

47:45 SARS & MERS gave a warning about coronaviruses 

48:45 Coronaviruses in the wild that are as infectious as covid but more deadly 

49:30 Death rate of Covid was relatively low, could be much worse 

51:00 Pandemics are inevitable, and could be much worse than covid 

51:45 Politics didn't allow for an after action report on pandemic response 

53:15 We'll never know if covid was from a lab or nature 

54:45 We could have vaccines ready before pandemics begin, not doing the work 

55:30 Did you write your book assuming a crank like Kennedy would run HHS? 

56:00 Kennedy is the biggest challenge public health has faced in decades 

56:45 Pandemics cause society to lose its collective mind 

58:15 Anti vaxx anger came from people being angry about the pandemic 

58:45 How do you prepare for a pandemic if the government isn't leading? 

59:30 MRNA vaccines are easier to produce at scale 

1:00:00 $500 million in funding cut for MRNA vaccines 

1:01:00 CDC vaccine board is now completely dysfunctional 

1:03:30 Where does medical research go without government backing? 

1:04:00 PEPFAR was one of the best uses of American soft power 

1:05:15 There's nobody in the White House with bio threat experience 

1:06:00 Trump 1.0 had a credible pandemic response plan. 2.0 doesn't. 

1:07:15 We will see diseases come back that we thought were gone 

1:09:00 What preventative measures can be taken without the government? 

1:09:45 Lockdowns don't work, surges of cases are inevitable 

1:10:30 Lockdowns were over by June, impact was overstated 

1:11:45 Lockdowns should only be based on hospital use/capacity 

1:13:30 Don't do lockdowns, maximize medical care instead 

1:14:45 Public misconception that vaccine would make people immune 

1:15:45 News media needs to be better at messaging public health info 

1:17:45 Risk to kids raised significantly with new covid variants 

1:19:00 Updates to scientific info get labeled as "flip flopping" when it's normal 

1:19:45 Science is not truth, it's the pursuit of truth 

1:20:45 Kennedy now linking acetaminophen to autism 

1:22:45 People dismiss health risks that fit their lifestyle, like drinking red wine 

1:24:00 Half the country was anti-expert, now anti-expert's are in charge 

1:25:45 BARDA was the envy of the world 

1:27:15 What else should we be doing in preparation for the next "big" pandemic? 

1:29:00 We need to develop a comfortable N95 respirator for the public 

1:30:00 Updating building codes to help prevent respiratory virus transmission 

1:32:30 MMR vaccine doesn't require a booster, likely confirms lifelong immunity 

1:35:45 Theme parks in Orlando will pressure government over vaccine mandate 

1:36:45 What's the status of H5N1 bird flu? 

1:38:30 There will be another flu virus pandemic, we just don't know when 

1:39:15 We're producing more poultry than ever, lots of opportunity for exposure 

1:40:15 We should be vaccinating livestock and poultry 

1:41:15 We're more vulnerable than ever to a bioterrorism attack

1:43:45 Chuck's thoughts on the interview with Dr. Osterholm 

1:44:15 Ask Chuck 

1:44:30 Will Trump ever target podcasts the way he targets other media? 

1:51:30 Comparing party platforms vs what they actually do while governing? 

1:55:45 Why have Republican voters gone along with Trump's authoritarianism? 

2:05:15 Weekend sports preview

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