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#27 - Dr Tom Inglesby on careers and policies that reduce global catastrophic biological risks

80,000 Hours Podcast

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Why You Shouldn't Make Quantitative Probability Estimates

As you go on, as you spend time in the field, and you see all these predictions happen. You see people say there will be a 50 % chance of a biological attack by the year 20 ten,. And then someone else says, another probability of this, and it doesn't happen. It's, in some way, i think, the more time you spend, the more cautious you get about making quantitative probability estimates. I was gong to say, just another reason might be that they they become people, become more uncertain about what actually is most important.

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