The Uncertainty of Job Loss

Keynes said there's no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever we simply do not know. Oxford study says 47% of jobs can be computerized, but authors failed to look at the fine print where they put 100% probability on some jobs being computerized and a 0% probability on others. I think trade and technology tend to have discontinuous effects. You look at the impact of China's entering the WTO at the start of the millennium on the US manufacturing sector significantly larger than people anticipated. Conversely anticipated job loss caused by driverless cars has been slower than we expected. But most experiments with driverless cars right now still have a safety driver sitting in the passenger seat