This chapter discusses the concept of markets as a complex adaptive system driven by heterogeneous opinions and explores how markets can move into bubble or crash territory when opinions become homogeneous, leading to information cascades. The speaker shares a personal experience of being caught in an information cascade during the internet bubble in 1999 and expresses admiration for individuals who can be seen in their multiple aspects without agreeing with all of them.
"Who is America’s best-known banker? That would be Jamie Dimon. But who is the richest? That would be Andy Beal, with an estimated net worth of $9 billion." Friend-of-the-show Frederik Gieschen joins us for an impromptu conversation about his article on the life and work of Andy Beal, the richest banker in America. Important Links:
Show Notes:
- The Arena, the Maze, and the Labyrinth
- Why do myths endure?
- “You can’t do a good deal with a bad person”
- America’s richest banker: the Andrew Beal story
- Agreeableness, contrarianism, and accountability
- Thinking like a banker vs. thinking like an investor
- The random buzz generator: How to fight linear thinking
- The alchemy of success
- Bubbles: When heterogeneity becomes homogeneity
- “The higher you rise in a hierarchy, the less good the information you get.”
- Deterministic vs. probabilistic thinking
- The difference between being an investor and being in the investing business
- The return of Andrew Beal
- The importance of agility
- MORE!
Books Mentioned:
- The Cosmic Trigger trilogy; by Robert Anton Wilson
- Aesop’s Fables; by Aesop
- Breath: The New Science of a Lost Art; by James Nestor
- The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King: Inside the Richest Poker Game of All Time; by Michael Craig
- What Works on Wall Street; by Jim O’Shaughnessy
- The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life; by Alice Schroeder