Avoiding Narrative Traps at Market Extremes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Gary Savage to the show. Gary Savage is Retired Entrepreneur, Investor, and President of Smart Money Tracker Premium. In this insightful interview, Savage provides a comprehensive analysis of the current precious metals market, focusing on gold and silver’s potential trajectory. Savage believes the gold market is currently in the second phase of a long-term bull market, which began around 2015. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining the “wall of worry” – a psychological state where investors remain cautious – to potentially extend the bull market’s duration. He suggests the market could continue for two to three more years if it avoids excessive optimism and maintains periodic corrections.

Regarding potential price targets, Savage is remarkably bullish on gold, predicting it could reach $10,000, and potentially even $15,000 or $20,000. For silver, he anticipates reaching $100 by 2026, with potential for $250 and possibly $500 if market conditions remain favorable. He sees the gold-to-silver ratio as a key indicator of market tops, with a ratio between 20-30 suggesting a potential market peak. Savage’s investment strategy involves an 80/20 split, with 80% in physical gold and silver as a long-term insurance strategy, and 20% dedicated to leveraged trading during intermediate market cycles.

Gary cautions against getting caught up in market narratives and emphasizes the importance of recognizing when an asset becomes overvalued. On broader economic trends, Savage discusses potential commodity supercycles, geopolitical conflict cycles, and the likelihood of continued central bank interventions. He remains cautiously optimistic about precious metals while acknowledging the potential for significant market volatility in the coming years.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:08 – Gold Bull Market Phase
00:02:34 – Wall of Worry Dynamics
00:05:03 – Public Interest in Gold
00:08:35 – Fundamentals and Narratives
00:10:22 – Parabolic Phase Indicators
00:12:13 – Playing the Bull Market
00:14:24 – Avoiding Narrative Traps
00:17:31 – Silver Price Outlook
00:21:27 – Market Suppression Break
00:23:53 – Miners as Leverage Play
00:25:44 – Equities Long-Term Cycle
00:29:27 – War Cycles and Recession
00:33:28 – Commodity Supercycle Potential
00:36:01 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
X: https:/x.com/garysavage1
Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videos
Website: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/

Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).

Gary’s renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, CommodityOnline, SilverMarketNewsOnline, StreetWiseReports, and InvestingNews.

Gary publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a daily and weekend market newsletter available online by subscription only, at a very modest price. This subscription-only site provides Gary’s in-depth daily commentary and chart analysis of numerous markets, including the stock, precious metals, oil, and currency markets.