4min chapter

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How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear

FiveThirtyEight Politics

CHAPTER

The Ukraine War Has Changed the World

There's been a very active debate about how outcomes in Ukraine what in the in the war change both likelihood of proliferation to additional states and whether states with nuclear weapons are likely to engage in nuclear black map which is essentially what Russia is doing. I am somebody of the belief that these effects are more limited than they're often portrayed. There's a bunch of countries in Eastern Europe in NATO who have pretty acute threat perceptions before those threat perceptions have almost certainly gone up as a result of the war. As far as nuclear coercion goes I think it is important that Russia's nuclear threats are broadly seen to have been ineffective.

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