SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)
Top Traders Unplugged
Breaking Benchmark Anchors for CTAs
Andrew argues TPA could free allocators from benchmark anchoring and enable larger, more appropriate CTA allocations.
In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or just the cost of staying disciplined in a low-volatility regime? As allocators repackage old ideas under new acronyms and model drift tempts even seasoned managers, the conversation turns to what still holds. From AI and capital efficiency to the quiet value of doing less, this is about defending process when the payoff isn’t obvious - and knowing what not to change when pressure mounts. We close off with our 2026 Outrages Predictions... don't miss them!
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on LinkedIn.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Follow Richard on Twitter.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and recap of the year end roundtable format
02:05 - Introducing AI in systematic investing and total portfolio approaches
04:00 - Will TPA meaningfully increase allocations to CTAs or just rebrand 60/40
06:30 - Practical uses of AI in research, coding and client communication
08:50 - Process stability in changing regimes and the temptation to “fix” models after pain
12:00 - When, if ever, model changes are justified versus pure overfitting
16:00 - What really causes CTA drawdowns and why “nothing happening” is so costly
20:00 - Communicating long and shallow drawdowns to committees that want simple villains
24:00 - High volatility and leveraged trend products for the retail and ETF audience
28:00 - Capital efficiency, portable alpha and how higher rates change the game
32:00 - Is dispersion in CTAs healthy diversification or a barrier to broader adoption
36:30 - Outrageous predictions for 2026 in rates, equities, vol and trend following
41:00 - Final reflections, investor takeaways and invitation for listener questions
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
