Volatility outlook for 2026 and VIX signal

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders. In this episode, Vermeulen provides an in-depth analysis of current market conditions, focusing primarily on precious metals, equities, and potential economic cycles. Chris suggests the precious metals market may be approaching a potential peak, characterized by high volatility and significant price fluctuations. He believes the market is currently experiencing its “last parabolic phase” and warns investors to be cautious. While acknowledging the excitement surrounding precious metals, he emphasizes the importance of having a strategic approach to manage potential risks.

A key aspect of Vermeulen’s analysis is the relationship between stock market performance and precious metals. He observes that the stock market, particularly the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, has not yet experienced the significant pullback that typically precedes a precious metals rally. He anticipates that when the equity market begins to sell off, it could trigger a substantial correction in precious metals. Vermeulen recommends a strategy of following price action rather than getting caught up in market narratives. He suggests investors should be prepared to rotate between stocks, bonds, currencies, and cash positions. He is currently bullish on gold, equities, and potentially the US dollar index, while being bearish on oil and energy sectors.

Looking ahead to 2026, Vermeulen predicts significant market volatility. He warns that the current low VIX (volatility) index suggests a lack of market fear, which could be a potential warning sign. His analysis indicates that the market might experience a relatively swift pullback, potentially lasting eight to twelve months, which could create opportunities for strategic investors to re-enter markets at more attractive valuations. Ultimately, Chris’s message is about maintaining flexibility, following technical indicators, and being prepared to adapt to changing market conditions. He emphasizes that successful investing is not about predicting exact market tops and bottoms, but about having a disciplined strategy to manage risk and capitalize on market movements.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:00 – Precious Metals Volatility
00:03:34 – Parabolic Phase Thesis
00:07:56 – Timing Physical Positions
00:09:55 – Market Cycle Analysis
00:13:04 – Equities Rollover Indicators
00:16:12 – Current Investment Opportunities
00:20:54 – Oil Gas Outlook
00:28:22 – 2026 Volatility Expectations
00:30:42 – Technical Traders Service
00:32:08 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://thetechnicaltraders.com/
X: https://x.com/TheTechTraders

Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework.

Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses.

A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques.