The Negative Real Rates of the Fed

Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to give a much-needed update on her macro views as equity and crypto markets encounter intense selling pressure. Alden argues that stubbornly high inflation will cause rotation from growth stocks to value stocks to continue.

However, Alden argues that she’s more likely to buy than short beleaguered hypergrowth names (think $ARKK) - instead she sees the greatest weakness in the mega-cap “FAANG” names, which she compares to the “Nifty Fifty” stocks, a basket of blue-chip equities that seemed impregnable in the 1960s but ultimately fared poorly in the later inflationary decade of the 1970s. But it’s not the 1970s, where interest rates rose to meet inflation, that reminds Alden the most of our current era; instead it is the 1940s, where policies such as yield curve control ensured that bond yields remained well below levels of inflation.

Alden argues that in this environment of sustained negative real interest rates, commodities will perform very well, and in particular commodities of fixed supply like gold and Bitcoin.

Lyn Alden on Twitter: @LynAldenContact

Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96

Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_

Lyn Alden’s investment analysis can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/.

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