Predictive Modeling in Vending Machines

This chapter explores the impact of variables like weekends and weather on vending machine sales through predictive modeling. It examines the performance of various models, their memory tools, and their strengths and weaknesses in simulating real-world conditions.

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Today Lukas Petersson and Axel Backlund of Andon Labs join The Cognitive Revolution to discuss their experiments deploying autonomous AI agents to run real-world vending machines, exploring the safety challenges and unexpected behaviors that emerge when frontier models like Claude and Grok operate without human oversight.

Read transcript of the episode here.

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Autonomous Organization Philosophy: Andon Labs believes that AI models will improve to the point where human oversight becomes impractical due to efficiency constraints, leading them to pursue fully autonomous systems rather than gradual automation.
Vending Bench as a Testing Ground: They created "Vending Bench" as a benchmark for testing long-term coherence of autonomous agents, using vending machines as a practical business case for experimentation.
Domain-Specific vs General AI: There's a notable difference between optimizing AI for narrow domains (like vending machines) versus general-purpose AI, with domain-specific applications potentially being more manageable regarding reward hacking.
Frontier Model Race: Major companies like OpenAI and Google are advancing rapidly in general reasoning capabilities (e.g., IMO Gold achievements) independent of narrow application research.
Insurance and Liability: The insurance industry may play a significant role in AI adoption, with premiums potentially being much higher for general models that could be misused versus narrow-domain models with limited capabilities.
For-profit AI Safety: The case for for-profit companies in AI safety has been historically neglected but is becoming clearer, with accelerators like Seldon Labs supporting this approach.

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CHAPTERS:

(00:00) About the Episode

(04:49) Company Vision Overview

(12:24) Vending Benchmark Design (Part 1)

(20:12) Sponsor: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure

(21:21) Vending Benchmark Design (Part 2)

(24:41) Model Performance Results (Part 1)

(35:03) Sponsor: Shopify

(37:00) Model Performance Results (Part 2)

(43:06) Real World Deployment