The Supply-Shock Case in 1946

In 1946, Americans had saved up tons of savings throughout the Great Depression and certainly World War II where you couldn't really spend much money rationing and shortages. As soon as the savings started to run out in around the middle of 1947, that's when you already saw the shift in consumer price advances begin to decelerate. And it didn't turn into the deflationary recession that we saw in 1948 and 49 all at once. It was a slow deceleration over the next year or so,. Even if the Fed had never gotten its anti-inflation authority in 1948, it wouldn't have mattered because by then consumer prices were already falling off dramatically.