What Is the Most Probable Theory of What Happened?

Most likely theory is that the disaster was produced by something electrical, but not something as dramatic as lightning. When a craft moves through the sky, it picks up static electricity on its outer skin. If there's also hydrogen and oxygen present, that can set off a fire. The rain caused the hemp ropes to become more conductive than normal, and that allowed the electricity to pass from the ship to the ground. And ash spark passed from the outer skin to the metal framework, it went through the hydrogen oxygen mix that was under the skin and, boom.