Data Assets & Alpha Group: Macro and Positioning Views – Jan 2023
Making Sense
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The Positioning Landscape in the US Investors
The JP Morgan House view from US chief economist Mike Frolli is that we see about 1 million jobs lost this year taking the unemployment rate from about 3.7% to 4.3%. Longer term, the downside risk comes from two sources: China's reopening, which could push commodity prices higher and services inflation given the strength in wage growth. In aggregate, we see positioning tilted fairly low across investors with the level of positioning tracked by our technical positioning monitor at a negative 0.8 standard deviation level or the 11th percentile since 2015. The Fed is likely to reinforce their message that a pause is not a pivot and that a pivot is not forthcoming in 2023.
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