Political Calculations and Global Movements

Chuck Todd begins by reacting to the senate passing Trump’s signature piece of legislation: “The Big Beautiful Bill.” He reviews the excuses and rationales given by the senators who had expressed issues with the bill but still voted for it, and explains why the fear of Donald Trump’s wrath is enough to get lawmakers to fall in line and explains why the bill’s passage is emblematic of the broken state of Congress.

Then, Chuck is joined by political scientist and Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer to dissect the most pressing geopolitical challenges facing the world today. The discussion begins with analysis of recent Iranian strikes and the Middle East conflict, exploring whether Iran has been exposed as a "paper tiger" and examining the complex dynamics between Trump, Netanyahu, and regional powers like Saudi Arabia. Bremmer offers insights into Iran's domestic vulnerabilities—noting the regime's mere 20% public support—while assessing the likelihood of nuclear developments and potential exit strategies from current conflicts.

The conversation expands to cover Trump's relationship with NATO allies, the slowly deteriorating situation in Ukraine, and Putin's potential next moves, including the concerning possibility of nuclear escalation if his regime faces existential threats. Bremmer and Todd also tackle the rise of populist movements globally, the erosion of democratic guardrails in America, and the fundamental shift toward reactionary politics that may define a generation. Throughout, Bremmer provides his characteristic blend of realpolitik analysis and concern for democratic institutions, culminating in a sobering assessment of how America's political system now rewards winners over leaders and creates conditions where "socialists can't beat capitalists, but they can beat kleptocrats."

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment regarding the potential for erosion of Trump’s support, election denialism and a fun alternate history theory where legendary Bears coach Mike Ditka beat Barack Obama for state office in Illinois.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

00:15 90 days from Liberation Day and “90 deals in 90 days”, there are two deals

01:30 Trump will back off on tariffs again to avoid economic damage

02:30 The Big Beautiful Bill passes the Senate

04:15 Josh Hawley votes for bill despite promises not to cut health care

06:00 Lisa Murkowski cites tax break expiration for her yes vote

08:15 Murkowski has always been Alaska first over America first

09:30 Republicans fall in line out of fear of Trump

11:00 Congress is broken 

13:00 Bipartisanship is dead in the 21st century

14:30 Both parties have weaponized partisanship

16:15 How do we fix the broken congress?

17:30 The public needs to understand WHY congress is broken

19:00 Independents could force congress to function better

21:00 Bill was rushed due to Trump’s impatience

22:30 We’re in the kleptocracy stage, headed toward authoritarianism

24:00 Dysfunction in congress has created a more powerful presidency

26:00 Ian Bremmer joins the Chuck ToddCast! 

28:00 Media cycle has already moved on from the Iran strike 

29:15 The strike wasn't meant to be a war 

30:15 Steve Bannon's theory that we're on the brink of WW3 

31:45 Trump wanted a negotiated settlement with Iran 

33:00 Netanyahu was always going to force the US's hand 

34:30 Trump is capable of telling Bibi "no" 

36:15 Would Trump support a two state solution? 

38:30 Iran has no friends on the global stage willing to support them 

40:15 After investigators access Gaza, Israel will lose support 

41:45 Saudis will demand a two state solution 

43:15 Did we expose Iran as a "paper tiger"? 

45:30 The Iranian regime only has 20% support from the public 

46:30 Iran's strong enough to put down an uprising 

47:30 The U.S. won't put boots on the ground in Iran 

49:00 What is Iran's exit strategy from this conflict? 

52:00 Iran is likely 3 years away from a bomb 

53:15 Iran may be a theocracy, but doesn't act irrationally 

54:45 The state of Iraq's leadership? 

56:15 Is there global investment in Iraq? 

57:15 Status of Trump + NATO? 

59:30 Europe underinvested in defense for decades 

1:01:15 Pushing Europe to spend more on defense is one of Trump's best achievements 1:02:00 Status of Russia/Ukraine war? 

1:03:00 Ukraine is losing slowly 

1:04:15 Chances Putin would attack one of the Baltic states? 

1:06:15 Putin could use a nuke if he felt his regime was at risk 

1:08:15 The rise of left wing populism 

1:10:00 American elections will be free and fair, but public won't think so 

1:12:00 Guardrails on the executive branch have been weakened 

1:13:15 Are we stuck with reactionary politics for a generation? 

1:14:45 Trump didn't attend funeral for assassinated Minnesota lawmakers 

1:15:45 The U.S. doesn't create leaders, it creates winners 

1:18:30 The lack of bipartisanship creates bad legislation 

1:19:45 The Big Beautiful Bill will create more Mamdanis 

1:20:45 Socialists can't beat capitalists, but they can beat kleptocrats

1:23:30 Thoughts on conversation with Ian Bremmer 

1:24:00 Mamdani beat Cuomo by double digits in final tally 

1:25:30 There will be a fight for the soul of the Democratic party 

1:26:15 Ask Chuck 

1:26:30 Could Trump's support erode like Marion Barry's? 

1:30:30 Election denialism now coming from both sides regularly? 

1:36:30 How different would things look if Mike Ditka had beat Obama in Illinois?