The Short Term Is More Observable Than the Long Term

U.S. stocks are down after new employment and jobless claims data released this morning indicated a still-resilient labor market. Private-sector employment rose by 235,000 in December, according to the latest ADP employment report, well above expectations. Annual pay for “job-stayers” rose 7.3%. Meanwhile, new jobless claims came in below estimates. On today’s show, Michael Gayed, the portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and editor of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what signals caused him to switch from calling for a “melt-up” to an “imminent crash” at the end of 2022, and where he believes market conditions are pointing next. Plus, we hear from David Higgins about the possibility of a 2023 recession and why it might last longer than many expect.

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