Bill Gurley lesson on missing TAM

This Week In Startups is made possible by:

Uber -  http://uber.com/twist

Pilot - https://pilot.com/twist

Northwest Registered Agent - https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist

Today’s show: 

Boom is still making supersonic jets but ALSO plans to start selling their turbines as power sources for AI data centers. It’s a perfect example of problem-solving on the go and how “the best founders… MAKE IT HAPPEN.”

Join us for another insightful VC roundtable episode, featuring special guests Bryan Kim (a16z) and David Clark (Ven Cap).

They’re discussing why Boom’s turbine announcement is about necessity AND opportunity PLUS…

- Why we might NOT be in an AI bubble after all

- Promoting your startup without spending your entire runway on marketing

- Why founders need to be RELENTLESS

- Bill Gurley’s classic response about Uber’s Total Addressable Market

- AND LOTS MORE

Bill Gurley’s iconic “Miss By a Mile” post: https://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11/how-to-miss-by-a-mile-an-alternative-look-at-ubers-potential-market-size/

Link to David’s LinkedIn (including the AI Bubble chart): https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7404139606398443520/

Timestamps:

(02:11) It’s a VC Roundtable with special guests Bryan Kim (a16z) and David Clark (Ven Cap)

(03:07) Why Bryan is leading a Series A into learning app Oboe

(06:20) Calculating a startup’s value to make everyone “somewhat unhappy”

(09:19) How Oboe hits a lot of the same metrics that LAUNCH looks for in startups

(11:58) Uber AI Solutions - Your trusted partner to get AI to work in the real world. Book a demo with them TODAY at http://uber.com/ai-solutions

(12:57) How funds decide when to cash out and lock in some DPI

(18:12) When some LPs want to sell and others want to buy…

(19:57) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year. 

(24:07) Is the threat of AI job displacement boosting self-improvement apps?

(27:37) Why Jason says we’re all standing on the shoulders of Bill Gurley

(29:46) Northwest Registered Agent - Form your entire business identity in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. Get more privacy, more options, and more done—visit https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist today!

(31:28) Boom’s turbine pivot, and why it’s about necessity AND opportunity (in that order)

(34:14) THE BEST FOUNDERS find a way to make it happen!

(39:10) So… are we in an AI bubble? David says NOT NECESSARILY! Checking out the actual metrics.

(44:36) We’re still SO EARLY in AI… We’re still seeing mostly skeuomorphic uses! (It’s a real word!)

(48:06) William Gibson was right: “The Street finds its own uses for things”

(51:11) How AI startups should think about margins

(55:58) Why LAUNCH tells founders to “start at the high end”

(57:33) Should founders spend a lot of $$$ on marketing in 2025? The panel disagrees!

(1:00:05) Momentum vs. Product Release Velocity

(1:03:26) It all comes back to the “relentlessness of the founder”

(1:05:17) Our panel’s hopes and dreams for the coming year

*

Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com

Check out the TWIST500: https://twist500.com

Subscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp

*

Follow Lon:

X: https://x.com/lons

*

Follow Alex:

X: https://x.com/alex

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm/

*

Follow Jason:

X: https://twitter.com/Jason

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis/

*

Thank you to our partners:

(11:58) Uber AI Solutions - Your trusted partner to get AI to work in the real world. Book a demo with them TODAY at http://uber.com/ai-solutions

(19:57) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year. 

(29:46) Northwest Registered Agent - Form your entire business identity in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. Get more privacy, more options, and more done—visit https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist today!