The El Nino Warning: We're Likely to Breach the 1.5 Degrees Celsius of Warming Above Pre-Industrial Levels in the Next Five Years

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El Nino weather system means we are likely to breach the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels in next five years, if only temporarily. Beyond that threshold, we see things happening that become quickly irreversible or irreversible in our lifetimes. Every fraction of a degree counts. The more warming, the more likely you are to trigger more of these tipping points. There's no economy on a dead planet. It's now or never.

Every year, the world’s leaders gather for the UN climate change conference. At Cop28, they will be faced with two stark warnings from scientists: we are likely to breach 1.5C warming above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, and we are on course to reach 2.7C of warming by the end of the century. Progress has never been more critical and this year it lies in the hands of the United Arab Emirates, a country that has plans to expand its already extensive oil and gas productions. With six months to go, Madeleine Finlay talks to environment correspondent Fiona Harvey about Cop28’s hosts and president, why this year is particularly key, and how close we are getting to irreversible climate tipping points. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/sciencepod