Record U.S. Government Shutdown and Probabilities for Its End

The U.S. government shutdown hit a record 41 days, with Polymarket data showing an 85% chance it ends between Wednesday and Friday. Q3 earnings remain strong, with 80% of S&P 500 firms beating expectations. Last week’s tech selloff, especially in AI stocks, dragged indices lower, with the NASDAQ hit hardest and the S&P 500 slipping 1.6%. Volatility eased sharply as the VIX fell below 19. Bitcoin briefly dropped under $100,000 before rebounding, while natural gas futures topped $4, nearing late-2022 highs. Earnings movers included Expedia and Datadog (DDOG) higher, while Super Micro (SMCI) and Palantir (PLTR) fell. Traders now await Thursday’s CPI data, though the shutdown could delay releases.