Banana skin in the game: How to learn from your investing mistakes
Many Happy Returns
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Did I Make a Mistake?
The future is a kind of branching tree of probabilities, and you simply have to choose the most likely outcome. If you replay that situation many times, your expected return is positive. This is why I think you shouldn't be hard on yourself if what you chose to do failed but it was just because of some unlucky fluke event. But if you're the kind of person that knew in advance two thirds of the time, this is the right decision then no, it's not a mistake.
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